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Showing posts with label odds. Show all posts
Showing posts with label odds. Show all posts

Monday, July 19, 2010

I did the math

And it was hard.

I am not good at math. I have never been good at math. In school, by the time I actually grokked whatever math concept we were learning, the class was already three chapters ahead of me. However, I am smart enough to know I don't know math, and am stubborn enough to think that I can force my way through it if I use enough formulas and such if I really, really have to know the answer to a math-related question.

This is one of those times when my curiosity, stubbornness and ineptitude join forces and combine to brute force a simple task.

I have to know the exact odds of pulling a non-short-printed 2010 Allen & Ginter base mini card OR I WILL GO COMPLETELY INSANE.

After a hobby box and several blasters I have noticed that base minis are few and far between. This is not quite enough to get me obsessed with finding out the ratio. What has pushed me over the edge is that damn Strasburg mini. You know, the one that drops at the same ratio as normal garden variety minis? Yeah, that one.

BUT WHAT WAS ODDS?

That's actually a good question, what the hell are the odds of pulling a base mini from a pack of A&G? There are plenty of odds listed for all the other flavors of mini cards, but none for the base minis. You shouldn't have to post odds for the base minis, should you? Those are the most common ones, right? Base minis are the water that the parallel sugar and the insert Kool-Aid packet goes into right? Well they don't seem so common this year to me, so I gotta find the odds. Here are the odds for all the other minis as listed on a retail pack:

Parallels:
Base SP - 1:13
A&G back - 1:5
A&G back SP - 1:65
Black border - 1:10
Black border SP - 1:130
No Number - 1:188
Bazooka - 1:376

Inserts:
National Animals - 1:8
Lords of Olympus - 1:12
Monsters of the Mesozoic - 1:12
World's Biggest - 1:12
Wordsmiths - 1:24
Sailors of the Seven Seas - 1:24
Creatures of Legend, Myth and Joy - 1:128

Did I miss any? Those are just the ones we have odds for, I don't even know about the Salty Sailors and Zodiac stealth inserts. Seems like an awful lot of inserts to me, in your average 24 pack box you're looking at pulling 10 of the common inserts. This is not counting the tough inserts or ANY parallels. So have base minis been squeezed out of the set altogether? 

I slept though the lecture on probability (and didn't understand a damn thing in the book anyway) so I'm going to break this down the best I can. I know that if I have 10 marbles, and the odds of a red marble is 1:5, then I can determine the number of marbles that aren't red, but figuring out the number of red marbles and subtracting form 10. 
10/5=2 
10-2=8 
So there are 8 marbles that are not red. Easy peasy. Now I'm going to do this with these damned A&G inserts. 

So I can do this without having to deal with messy fractions, I need to find the least common multiple of all these odds. That seems like a lot of odds, but there are only four numbers I really have to deal with to make this all even.
24 - is divisible by 8, 12 and 24
130 - is divisible by 5, 10, 13 and 65
376 - is divisible by 188
128 - is divisible by none of these other numbers
Finding the least common multiple of those three numbers will allow me to divide that number by all those odds without getting a fraction. Then I can add all those numbers up, subtract that total from the least common multiple, and then divide the least common multiple by that number to get the odds of pulling a base card from a pack of A&G. I know, you're confused. So am I. The only thing I do worse than math is explain how to do math. It should work out fine assuming I don't make a simple calculating error. Odds of that are about 1:3, but we don't need those odds.

I can't manage to do the simplest math, but I'm going to find the least common multiple of four large numbers? No! I'm not! The internet to the rescue! I just need to go to this site and plug in all the numbers. The least common multiple is:

1173120

Ok, that's a lot of cards. That's almost forty-nine thousand boxes. I don't think that many A&G minis were printed. It will work with the math at any rate, so let's go for it.

Base SP - 1:13 - 1173120/13 =  90240 cards
A&G back - 1:5 - 1173120/5 = 234624 cards
A&G back SP - 1:65 - 1173120/65 = 18048 cards
Black border - 1:10 - 1173120/10 = 117312 cards
Black border SP - 1:130 - 1173120/130 = 9024 cards
No Number - 1:188 - 1173120/188 = 6240 cards
Bazooka - 1:376 - 1173120/376 = 3120 cards

National Animals - 1:8 - 1173120/8 = 146640 cards
Lords of Olympus - 1:12 - 1173120/12 = 97760 cards
Monsters of the Mesozoic - 1:12 - 1173120/12 = 97760 cards
World's Biggest - 1:12 - 1173120/12 = 97760 cards
Wordsmiths - 1:24 - 1173120/24 = 48880 cards
Sailors of the Seven Seas - 1:24 - 1173120/24 = 48880 cards
Creatures of Legend, Myth and Joy - 1:128 - 1173120/128 = 9165 cards

These are not the total number of cards out there (although you could calculate that using the Bazooka minis - but that's another post) but it will give us an idea of how many minis are not parallels or inserts. First, we add the totals together:

90240 cards
+ 234624 cards
+ 18048 cards
+ 117312 cards
+ 9024 cards
+ 6240 cards
+ 3120 cards
+ 146640 cards
+ 97760 cards
+ 97760 cards
+ 97760 cards
+ 48880 cards
+ 48880 cards
+ 9165 cards
Equals
1025453 non-base mini cards

To find the total number of base minis, subtract:

1173120
-1025453
Equals
147667 base mini cards

Ok! We've got the total number of cards and the total number of base minis. Divide these two numbers and we have the odds for a base mini.

1173120/147667=
7.94

Let's just round this off to account for any stalth Zodiac Sailor inserts that may be floating around out there and the odds for a base mini in 2010 Allen & Ginter is....

1:8 packs

Now about that Strasburg...
If a base mini falls at one per eight packs... and there are 301 base minis available... the odds of pulling the Strasburg out of a retail pack of 2010 Allen & Ginter is.............

1:301 blasters

or

just over 1:100 24 pack retail boxes.

To put this in perspective, assuming my math is correct, it is easier to pull a Rip card out of a hobby pack than to pull a Strasburg out of a blaster. Of course the odds are the same for pulling an Eric Byrnes base mini out of a blaster so there's some small consolation if you actually do so. These numbers are for retail only, Hobby odds are slightly different and I don't have time to calculate them right now. If anyone feels ambitious, knock yourself out and let me know what you find.

Well, Topps didn't completely squeeze base minis out of the set, but just add one more insert set and they can still pull it off in 2011. So when you're out there in that shop or on eBay looking for Allen & Ginter minis, remember that A&G minis are the 'commons' in 2010 and that if you really want a Strasburg, you're probably better off just buying it at whatever inflated price it's going for instead of trying to rip packs until you find one.

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Derek Lowe is not the only Lucky Bastige out there

The day after declaring his intention to collect every single Ken Griffey Jr. card from his second go-around with the Mariners (something I had planned to do with Ken when he was seemingly going to sign with the Braves), He ends up getting one of the scarcest Griffey releases in Thorzul's A Piece of History group break. What are the odds?

I do know the odds of getting this:


If you're keeping track, that's three lucky bastiges, Derek, Matt and me. I pulled this Babe Ruth Chase '61 Variation out of a retail pack last week. I was killing time on my lunch break and went to Wally world for a couple packs of Heritage and some popcorn shrimp when the Babe made his appearance. When I saw what I had pulled I nearly pyew- wait, no. I was very excited by my good fortune. I'm not inspiring Thorzul any more.


I consider this card to be a variation and not a gimmick. Basically because Topps put the odds on the pack. the stupid stealth color variation cards that no one would ever be able to pick out in a million years without having a doctorate in advanced cardology, those mickeyfickeys are gimmicks. I love variations, gimmicks not so much. This is a pretty sweet looking card even though the design is as boring as a box of rocks. The Babe tends to bring up everything around him to his level. The only complaint I have about the card is the fact that the stats on the back are near microscopic. That's pretty nitpicky though, I'll just have to get the Sherlock Holmes magnifying glass out when I look at the card and be happy about it. So what's the chance of pulling this beast?.

There are three of the Chase '61 variations that fall at 1:435 retail packs. I got extra lucky and got Ruth over Maris and the overdone Mantle versions. Sure this card is tough, but how tough is it compared to any of the other cards in the set? there's a lot of short prints out there, and there's only three of these suckers. Let's check out the approximate odds for pulling any single card from the set.

Base cards: You get about 7 in a pack and there are 425 of them. 425 divided by 7 gives you a ratio of about 1:60 packs to pull any single base card.
Short prints: these are one in every three packs. Since there are 75 of them, you're looking at 1:225 packs to snag that one short print you need to complete your set.
Dice back variations: I kinda want to collect this set, but I'm so far behind in trading that I don't dare go begging for them. Seriously, I suck right now. Sorry to anyone waiting on cards from me. There are 18 of those cards and at 1:72 packs you're looking at odds of 1:1296 to pull that Pujols for your collection.
Chase '61 variation: Three cards, 1:435 odds. are these the hardest to pull? Do the path. 3x435 = 1:1305 packs. So really, these are about as tough as the dice backs. Even so, pulling the Ruth out of retail makes me the king lucky bastige for the week.

Two more lucky bastiges tonight:
Tommy Hanson for getting taken off the hook for a loss by two-out homers from Troy Glaus and the J-Hey kid with two outs in the ninth.
Billy Wagner for getting the win courtesy an improbable walk-off homer by Mr Slump Nate McLouth.

Actually all Braves fans are lucky bastiges tonight!

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

2009 Allen & Ginter Box Break Part 1: Packaging, Box Topper and the Very First Pack

Yep, I got you all hyped up over the release of Allen & Ginter, teased my box and the first thing I'm going to do is scan all the packaging. That's just how I roll. The box top has a very familiar looking 19th century gentleman featured but I can't quite place him. I'll figure it out sooner or later. There's also a Mantle relic, Howard auto and Napoleon pube card on there as well. It's all very Allen & Gintery indeed (except the pube).

Here's the inside flap of the box top. Disappointingly, the preview cards are the same, but Old Planter makes up for the lack of originality. Both the inside and outside of the box top has a large warning about choking hazards. There must be an excessive amount of New York Mets cards in the checklist.

The front side of the box has a sheep on it for some inexplicable reason. Maybe the sheep is food for all the mythological monster inserts inside the box. At any rate it's making me want to play a round or two of Worms on the Gameboy. Yes, I still play my Gameboy, mainly because I have the Worms: Armageddon cartridge. As you can see, I got a little rambunctious opening the box up and trashed it a little. I guess I have to buy another box!

The sides of the box have familiar looking guy and the logo. All sides look just about the same excet for the picture on the left.

The back of the box hasplaying cards on it. You never know, this could have to do with the code. Just in case:

9D JC 9S
8C AS 8H

If this is a clue and it holps someone solve the code, please send a Dominique Wilkins auto my way.

Ok, the box bottom is one half legalese and I'm not even going to bother with that. The stuff you want is right here: Relic and Auto group listings. There's also the odds for pulling an N43 auto/relic card. Here's yer chances:

N43 Relic - 1:162 boxes
N43 Autograph - 1:270 boxes
N43 AutoRelic - 1:1,621 boxes

It sure ain't easy, but someone has to pull 'em. I scanned this bit at 300 dpi so if you want a good look, just click on the image. Let's look at the autograph groupings first.

There's only two groups: Group A (1:2,730 packs) and Group B (1:51 packs). You're looking at an autograph in about every other box there. Chris Olds wasn't kidding on that Beckett box break, there really are 8 different Michael Phelps autographs listed which is frankly quite ridiculous. There are only 8 other players in the group! Group B is sort of odd, as the usually short printed non-baseball autos are mixed in with the ones that people usually pull like Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla. I'm not sure what's going on there, but if there are short printed autographs it's a bit misleading to lump them in with the 1:51 list. The one card on that list that really messed with my mind was the Will Simpson/Archie Bunker one. First, I had no clue how a fictional character could possibly sign an autograph. I also didn't know who the heck Will Simpson was. Then I Googled it and found this.

SOMEONE PLEASE TELL ME THERE ISN'T A HORSE AUTOGRAPH IN THIS PRODUCT.

ON A MINI CARD NO LESS.

AAAAAAH MIND SNAPPED

Ok, enough of autographs, let's move on to the relics. Four groups here:
Group A: 1:100 Packs
Group B: 1:215 Packs
Group C: 1:39 Packs
Group D: 1:17 Packs

Group A appears to be the toughy one. That group has all the oddball subjects (horses and mascots and Phelps, oh my!) along with some high profile players (Pujols, Manny and Mantle) and finally a few low level names that no one will associate with being short printed at all. Tim Hudson and Casey Kotchman are in Group A, but I doubt they will go for a premium at all.

Group B looks like the Big Boy group with A-Rod Pujols and Ichiro with the stars and high odds (1 in about 9 or 10 boxes) but then you realize there's only eight subjects and one of them is Eric Gagne. Group C and D relics are the ones you'll end up pulling out of your box althought there's a good mix of superstars in there - Howard, Chipper, Lincecum, Vladdy, Prince, Wright, Longoria... There's a better than average chance of pulling a superstar relic out of an average box.

Oh, look. A serial number underneath the packs. I shall scan it and post it, for I am insane.

- the hell??

Dear lord, I got TWO serial numbers!

SERIAL NUMBER HOT BOX MOJO!!!


Here's the wrapper. You'll see plenty of these so let's not dwell on it.

Ah, this is what we want, the odds. The possibility of successfully pulling anything good if you're not a case breaker is approximately 3720 to 1. Never tell me the odds! Oh well, here they are anyway in order of "you'll have piles of 'em" to "fuggehtaboudit".

A&G Ad Back Mini Parallel - 1:5 packs
Baseball Highlights Sketches - 1:6 packs
Black Bordered Mini Parallel - 1:10 packs
Ginter Code Parallel card - 1:12 packs
National Heroes Mini - 1:12
Hoaxes, Hoodwinks, Bamboozles & Felonies That Destroyed The Lives Of Thousands Of People Mini - 1:12
Short Print Parallel - 1:13 packs
Creatures of Legend, Myth & Terror Mini - 1:48 packs
A&G Ad Back Mini Short Print Parallel - 1:65 packs
No Number Mini Parallel - 1:95 packs
Black Bordered Mini Short Print Parallel - 1:130 packs
Bazooka Ad Back Mini Parallel - 1:191 packs
Rip Card - 1:257 packs
Framed Mini Cloth Cards - 1: 278 packs
Framed Mini Printing Plates - 1:608 packs
Wood Mini Parallel - 1:2,780 packs
Cut Signature - 1:186,000 packs
Framed DNA Relic - 1:186,000 packs
Autos and Relics are detailed about and are overall 1:8 packs.

Or to put it another way:

A&G Ad Back Mini Parallel - about 6 per box
Baseball Highlights Sketches - 4 per box
Black Bordered Mini Parallel - about 3 or 4 per box
Ginter Code Parallel card - 2 per box
National Heroes Mini - 2 per box
Hoaxes, Hoodwinks, Bamboozles & Felonies That Destroyed The Lives Of Thousands Of People Mini - 2 per box
Short Print Parallel - 2 per box
Creatures of Legend, Myth & Terror Mini - 1 in 2 boxes
A&G Ad Back Mini Short Print Parallel -about 1 in 3 boxess
No Number Mini Parallel - about 1 in 4 boxes
Black Bordered Mini Short Print Parallel - about 1 in 4 or 5 boxes
Bazooka Ad Back Mini Parallel - 1 in 8 boxes
Rip Card - about 1 in 11 boxes
Framed Mini Cloth Cards - about 1 12 boxes
Framed Mini Printing Plates - 1 in 25 boxes
Wood Mini Parallel - 1 in 116 boxes
Cut Signature - 1 in 7,750 boxes or 1 in 146 cases
Framed DNA Relic - ditto

Overall, expect about 25 total inserts and parallels per box not counting normal minis, one per pack National Pride cards and short prints. Oddly enough there is no odds for short prints on the pack. I'm hoping they are still 1:2 packs, or the joy of building this set is going to be greatly diminished.

Here's the full checklist that is included as a box loader in every hobby box. If anyone has a spare checklist from 2006, I could use one. The print is tiny, and quite frankly my eyes are too tired to be staring at it tonight. I will be focusing on a couple of interesting things in it in a future post. The one thing that I was most interested to see was the replacement for the Bernie Madoff card. Card #2 is now "Alabama Changes Value of Pi". This made me smile broadly.

Ok, now for the goodies. Gentlemen, I introduce... THE BOX TOPPER:

(+8 Gint-a-Cuffs)

I got a Cabinet Card. Getting a cabinet card basically means you didn't get an autorelic, but I'd never get one of those anyway. The past three years I've gone back and forth Cabinet, N43, Cabinet. Looks like I'll be getting a 2010 N43 card next year. Let's see who I got:

Now this is a nice cabinet card! The Declaration of Independence featuring the autohor and most recognizable signer. This card would have come in handy for Fourth of July! I'm happy with this, here's the back featuring the Historical checkist:

The set also has the Constitution, NATO, the South surrendering and my favorite, the Space Race.

Ok, I promised it... Here's my very first pack of 2009 Allen & Ginter.



134 Jered Weaver
52 Aaron Hill
173 Francisco Rodriguez
57 Frank Evans +2
85 Jason Jaramillo RC
249 John Higby
15 Alfred Nobel mini

and one more...

NP7 Chipper Jones National Pride +6

Can't do better than Chipper in the first pack. One surprising thing - The National Pride cards are not thick like last year's states cards. They are like a normal card. Maybe they aren't decoys this year but are a one per pack insert? You'd still need over three boxes to complete the set. I'm loving the fact that Negro Leaguers are in the set. Frank Evens is shown in a Birmingham Black Barons uniform and also played with Chattanooga, Detroit, New Orleans and the Kansas City Monarchs. Alfred Nobel is a cool mini and the first 2009 card in my 06-09 A&G mini set, bumping Jeff Francoeur out of the binder and into my Braves team set. And say what you will about oddball characters in A&G sets, that John Higby yo-yo champion card kicks ass.

Damn, I love this set. Twenty three packs to go!

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

2008 Allen & Ginter Box Break Part 1: Packaging, Box Topper and the Very First Pack

Got the box this morning. Good News: Boxes didn't instantly jump to $120 a pop. Bad News: They were $10 bucks more than last year. Methinks there were more orders for the 2008 issue since everyone went batshit over A&G last year. Hopefully the box prices will remain stable this year. I'd like to get another box or two for under a Benjamin each if at all possible.

Ok, time to open this puppy. But first, let's scan all the packaging and crap for posterity. This is not your box break! If I want to scan the box, I'll bloody well do it. If you absolutely can't wait to see cards go check out A Pack A Day. Or, I dunno, scroll to the bottom of the post. Sheesh, some people are impatient. For all you nice collectors out there who appreciate good Box Art, here's the top:

Very nice... Suitable for framing... David Wright, Abraham Lincoln and the Hot Dog Eating Guy is an *ahem* interesting trio of cover subjects. And did ballplayers really use eye black in 1888?? Ok, off to the front:

We've got the first appearance of Old Planter, A weightlifter dude, and ads for Hobby Exclusive N43 Auto and Relic cards and Sequentially Numbered Rip cards. And of course, the security seal. Gotta keep safe now. Here's the side:

More Old Planter, a Microscope (looking for the joke) and ads for Auto and Relic cards, Printing plates, 1887 Originals, 1 of 1 relics and cut sigs. Yeehaw. Then there's this dude:

The other two sides are the exact same except they have Mr. Acrobat. Moving on...

Here's the bottom part with all the odds and auto/relic groups. Click on the picture and you'll actually be able to read it. Long story short:

N43 box loader 1:3 boxes
N43 relic 1:246 boxes
N43 auto 1:428 boxes
N43 auto relic 1:2565 boxes
Cabinet box loader 1:3 boxes
Cabinet auto 1:322 boxes

I'm pretty sure there's some sort of box loader in every box to the odds are slightly better than 1:3 for a box topper. As for the autograph and relic groups, you're on your own there. I don't want to spent all day typing when I could be ripping. I will make these short observations though:

WEIRDEST AUTOGRAPH: Deep Blue
WEIRDEST RELIC: Bigfoot
WHY THE HELL ARE THERE TWO GROUPS FOR 1 OF 1 RELICS AWARD: Group B - Wooly Mammoth. It's either a 1 of 1 or it isn't. Make up your mind, people.

Can't wait any longer. Rrrrrrrrrrip!


W00T! Chipper's on the inside flap with Mickey, Ichiro and Abe (again) We get it Topps, you found some presidential pubes and put them in a card.

Oh, look. A serial number underneath the packs. I shall scan it and post it, for I am insane. Box #199? Low numbers, baby. Gotta love the low numbers.

Here's the checklist. If anyone specifically requests it, I'll scan it at 300 DPI and post if for ya. Right now, there's bigger fish to fry. BEHOLD ~ THE BOX TOPPER:

Last year I got a Cabinet card, this year an N43. Sounds fair to me. It's not thick or bumpy so no relics or autos for me. Let's rip.

I love it when you call me Big Papi... Out of all the Not Braves players on the checklist Ortiz is my favorite so we're starting off on a good foot here. Now, onto...

THE FIRST PACK

Here's the wrapper. Same design as the box top, just without Dave, Abe and Hot Dog Guy.

Here's the odds. I used up the Star Wars joke last year so we'll get on with it. THE ODDS:

Short Print 1:2

PARALLELS:
Short Print Mini 1:13
Orange Cards (what the unmitigated fuck is an Orange card??) 1:144
A&G back mini 1:5
A&G back mini short print 1:65
Black border mini 1:10
Black border mini short print 1:130
A&G cloth mini 1:439
No number mini 1:151
Bazooka back mini 1:301
Wood mini 1:4395

INSERTS:
World Leader mini 1:12
Ginter Code card (Greatest Victories) 1:24
Ancient Icons: 1:48
Baseball Icons 1:48
Dangerous Sharks N/A
Aviation N/A

AUTOS, RELICS AND OTHER ASSORTED JUNK:
Framed Relic Group A 1:280
Framed Relic Group B 1:71
Framed Relic Group C 1:20
Framed DNA Relic Group A 1:203,317
Framed DNA Relic Group B 1:264,312
Framed Auto Group A 1:277
Framed Auto Group B 1:256
Framed Auto Group C 1:135
Framed Auto Relic 1:26,431
Cut Sig: 1:138,500
Rip Card 1:189
Printing Plate 1:961
Framed Originals 1:26,500

FINALLY. Time to rip a pack! First card of 2008 A&G is....


BRIAN BANNISTER

Here's Pack #1.

239 Brian Bannister
270 Lance Berkman
126 Chris Young
310 Michael Bourn SP
35 Eric Byrnes Mini
US42 Tennessee - Todd Helton
99 John Bowker RC
69 Stevie Williams

Good start to the box. Packs 2-4 will be posted later tonight.

Saturday, August 4, 2007

Allen & Ginter: Caesars and Snakes

Those sneaky devils at Topps have added two unannounced mini insert sets into 2007 Allen & Ginter. Like the Flags of All Nations insert set, Topps has created two more tributes to the original A&G non-sports sets. The unannounced sets appear to be 'sets that never were' that mimic the style and subject matter of the original A&Gs while the Flags set is based on the original N10 set from Allen & Ginter. Topps didn't include these sets in the checklist inserted into each box, so I have compiled these checklists from current eBay auction listings for reference.

The first set is Roman Emperors. I haven't seen any confirmed odds but looking through a few case breaks on the forums they seem to be inserted 6 per case, or 1 every 2 boxes or so.

The Checklist:
E1 Julius Caesar
E2 Caesar Augustus
E3 Tiberius
E4 Caligula
E5 Claudius
E6 Nero
E7 Titus
E8 Hadrian
E9 Marcus Aurilius
E10 Septimus Severus

The second set is Deadliest Snakes. This set is inserted 1 card per case or 1 in every 288 packs.

The Checklist:
S1 Coral Snake
S2 Copperhead
S3 Black Mamba
S4 King Cobra
S5 Cottonmouth

Assuming the Emperor's pull rate is actually 1 in 48 packs here are the odds of pulling any individual card from a pack, or how many packs it would take to get a complete set with perfect collation and no doubles.

Flags : 50 cards inserted one in 12 packs = one in 600 packs
Emperors: 10 cards inserted one in 48 packs = one in 480 packs
Snakes: 5 card inserted one in 288 packs = one in 1440 packs

Basically, if you are simply looking for a type card so you can say you have one of each type of card, Flags are the easiest. However, if you are going to try to complete the set the Emperor cards are just a little bit easier to complete. Snakes are just plain tough all around.

Update:
Emperors may only be 5 per case, I've seen both 5 per and 6 per listed on various forums. Packing out at exactly 5 per case would be a probability of 1 card per 57.6 packs, which is not exactly a usual ratio. It is probably somewhere in between which would account for why some cases have 5 and some have 6.

Also, while searching for mini cards on eBay, I have found several auctions that have individual Flag cards listed as SPs within a lot. So far I have only seen a few, and I haven't seen any rhyme or reason for the SP designation, but there may very well be short print flags floating out there as well. If that is the case, then forget about having an easy time finishing that set.

Bottom line is, see all those odds up there? Forget about them. They are completely useless. Right now the only thing sure is that Snakes are 1 a case. I'll continue to update If I find anything concrete on all this, but since we're still waiting on an official SP list for Topps, who knows when that will be.